This visualization charts average exit velocity (EV) on the x-axis and hard-hit rate (HardH%) on the y-axis for each Cardinals pitcher during the 2024 season. These two metrics work in tandem to assess how effectively pitchers manage contact quality. Exit velocity measures the average speed of balls put in play, while hard-hit percentage reflects how often a pitcher allows batted balls to leave the bat at 95 mph or higher, both of which are strong indicators of pitching effectiveness in limiting damage.
Each circle represents a pitcher, with circle size indicating innings pitched and color representing their BABIP (batting average on balls in play). A team-average BABIP is .294, so pitchers shaded green are allowing fewer hits on balls in play than average, suggesting either skill at limiting hard contact or favorable batted-ball luck. In contrast, pitchers shaded red are experiencing a higher-than-average BABIP, which could stem from poor contact management, defensive lapses, or bad luck.
The four quadrants tell a story of contact profiles. Pitchers in the bottom-left quadrant (low EV, low HardH%) are doing the best job at limiting dangerous contact. Those in the top-right quadrant (high EV, high HardH%) are allowing more consistently hard contact and could be at risk for giving up more damage. The bottom-right quadrant includes pitchers who allow high exit velocity but fewer hard-hit balls, possibly due to weaker launch angles or more ground balls. The top-left quadrant represents pitchers giving up frequent hard contact despite lower average exit velocity, possibly due to line drives.
Two pitchers worth spotlighting here are Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas, both of whom logged significant innings in 2024. Gray appears in the bottom-left quadrant with an EV and HardH% both below league average. This placement, coupled with his green shading, highlights his ability to consistently limit damaging contact over a high volume of innings. Conversely, Mikolas appears in the top-right quadrant, signaling trouble. He allowed one of the highest average exit velocities and hard-hit rates among qualified Cardinals pitchers, and his BABIP sits above league average, confirming that opposing hitters frequently made quality contact. While Gray’s placement supports his reputation as a control-oriented pitcher with effective command, Mikolas may need to adjust either pitch location or selection to reduce the quality of contact against him.
Filters on the right allow users to refine this chart by ERA+, age, position (starter, reliever, closer), and innings pitched, making it easier to isolate specific groups or trends. Notably, the trendline added to the plot has a p-value below 0.05, confirming that the relationship between exit velocity and hard-hit rate is statistically significant. Together, these variables illustrate which Cardinals pitchers are thriving at suppressing quality contact and which may need to adjust their approach heading into future outings.
